Roulette vs Marriage

[HimeoParticipant 471]

Suppose you go to Vegas. Las Vegas famous for gambling and marriage. Now suppose you had to choose between putting all of your money on black at a roulette table or marrying a typical American woman.

Which is the smarter bet?

Let’s look at the numbers:

Roulette:

Risk %51.4 chance of losing everything. Assuming you don’t repeat this bet you lose once.

Upside: %48.6 chance of doubling your money. Assuming you don’t repeat this bet you win once.

Marriage:

Risk: %60 chance of losing half of everything. Significant chance to continue losing for 18-24 years (depending on where you live in America). %90 chance of losing custody of your children.

Upside: …

Gentleman, have you considered that marriage might be a bad bet?

[Sky-OParticipant 18933]

Absolutely true:

However, I’ve never had sex with a roulette table.

And that is part of what could be a long term dilemma for MGTOW. How to restrain a timeless and very primitive urge among men to engage in sex with women. It is a powerful force and convincing a guy to adhere to all of MGTOW’s principles as well as cease having sex with women will ultimately be challenging.

Let’s assume, every intelligent guy with a functioning brain, goes full on MGTOW over the course of a decade. Guys that are not smart enough to join MGTOW and live their lives accordingly will wind up procreating and doing a lot of it. The Catch-22 to that is children will still continue to be born, with women and dumb guys as the parents. A larger tax base (at the state and federal) level will be needed to support all of the social services associated with children, including public schools, food stamps, etc. – especially since all of the high producing and more intelligent guys will have gone their own way, leaving the least likely guys to be dads, to raise children they should have never had. It all comes down to taxes and guys that have gone MGTOW would ultimately have to pay for the tax increases as single people always get taxed at higher rates to pay for children they did not create.

 

But the numbers are accurate.

[AFTParticipant 2722]

@himeo The upside to Marriage is incomplete:

Marriage:

Upside: 40% chance in living in miserable servitude to a rapidly aging, fattening selfish bitch.

@sky-o  As a divorced man may I attest that sex has nothing to do with marriage.  In fact marriage is the end of real sex for most men.

Roulette you’ve got almost 50% chance of winning, and you can limit you’re losses by placing a smaller bet.

When the war cemeteries are half full of the corpses of dead conscripted women, only then will women have earned the right to speak of equality. Sidecar “A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and goes to bed at night and in between does what he wants to do.” - Bob Dylan

[HimeoParticipant 471]

AFT wrote:

Roulette you’ve got almost 50% chance of winning, and you can limit you’re losses by placing a smaller bet.

Good point! A more equal bet would be HALF of everything you have at the roulette table. Because that’s what you’re betting in marriage.

[StargazerParticipant 12505]

I don’t disagree with you that marriage is a bad risk, but I’m afraid your logic is flawed.

In your example, the roulette bet would net you a result of 2 or 0 times your current wealth whereas the marriage bet would net you a result of 1 or .5 (assuming for simplicity that the odds are both exactly 50%.

This leaves out a couple of important points, namely taxes on the upside of the roulette bet could be as high as 28%. So really you’re talking more of a 1.72 or 0 for the roulette bet. Marriage, on the other hand, does have some positives whether you win or lose in the end. You may enjoy anywhere from several months to many years of relatively happy living prior to finding out if your Schrodinger’s Cat is alive or dead and that’s worth something, let’s call it 30% just for the sake of round numbers. That makes the marriage equation 1.3 or .8 (cause only a fool would mentally rewrite history on the good times he’d already enjoyed upon finding his cat to be kaput).

Now given that were talking to risk averse people, we want to find the least risky course of action so we need to run a minimax calculation to determine our decision. I’m not a statistician so I’ll leave calculating the regret to someone with better math skills than my own but suffice to say that given a potential downside of 0 (total loss) versus a .8 (half your stuff minus the upside you’ve already received), I would rather risk my future on a marriage than on a roulette bet.

Now, if you want to talk about a reward potential decision where I am risk resistant, the roulette bet has slightly greater upside… but then you have to consider that I have the power to work at my marriage and extract the maximal value from it that I can while also working to minimize my risk. With planning and careful strategy (and a bit of good fortune), I could potentially see a synergistic upside of 200 to 500% or more in the marriage with a maximal loss of 50% whereas the roulette bet will never pay me more than 172% if I win [a taxable amount] and never take less than 100% if I lose.

I’ll bet $100 on that, but not everything I have.

[BrainPilotParticipant 7640]

Good analysis Fenderson,
I think I’d rather bet on Roulette as well, and would also minimize my bet as low as possible. Not only for the reasons given, but also for reasons that include:

No roulette wheel will ever call the police and accuse me of rape, child or spousal abuse…
No roulette wheel will ever screw some dirtbag behind my back and bring me a STD…
No roulette wheel will get pregnant by said dirtbag and try to pin child support on me…

You see where I’m going here so I won’t belabor the point. I really only posted to this thread to pass on a Warren Buffet quote about risk that can be applied to roulette or marriage and certainly applies to being a mgtow.

“Never risk something that you have and that you need in an effort to try to get something that you don’t have and don’t need”.

I’m 48 years old and have worked very hard for what I have. What I have… I very much need. What women have…? Well, not so much. I don’t need what women have to offer me in a marriage so badly that I’d be willing to risk half of what I have in order to get it.

But alas, like you Fenderson… Catch me at the right moment and I might consider throwing down $100 for it… 😛

Look, it's not my fault that tornado dropped a house on your sister. Now get back on your broom and get your ass out of here... and take your monkeys with you

[Author]

Posts