I’m currently reading a book on modelling and prediction and so far it has been mainy focused on things like weather forecasting, election results and financial forecasting (e.g. the 2008 credit crunch) and generally on how they are done badly.
One of the key concepts is understanding the difference between risk and uncertainty and using them correctly.
Risk is generally a known quantity based on good data and historical trend or precedent, whereas uncertainty is a measure of the confidence in the model, the data or the person doing the analysis has clue what they are talking about.
For example, a weather forecaster may say that tomorrow there will be a 10% chance of rain. Historical analysis has shown that they are pretty accurate in that 1 in 10 days it did indeed rain the next day. A low level of uncertainty for next-day forecasting. However, next-week forecasting has very high levels of uncertainty and forecasts for the following week are generally (correctly) very vague.
During the credit crisis, the credit ratings agencies presented certain financial products as low risk (<1% chance of default) when in fact they didn’t have clue. Retrospective analysis has shown that the actual risk was very high (>30%), but the credit agencies either didn’t understand the uncertainty or lied for their own benefit. People took the credit agencies at their word and acted accordingly and we are still suffering ten years later from the consequences of the disaster that followed.
This got me thinking about the risks and uncertainty related to women. Here’s a few of my thoughts on the subject:
As men:
If you get married:
- there is a 70% risk that you will end up divorced and losing half your s~~~. Very low uncertainty levels.
- there is a very high probablility you will be accused of domestic violence in the event of divorce. Low uncertainty levels. Personally I think this is approaching 100% as divorce lawyers for women use this a the first “negotiating” tactic.
- there is a >80% risk you will not have custody of any children in the event of divorce. Low uncertainty levels.
- there is a very high risk your wife will be unfaithful. Low uncertainty levels.
If you stick your dick in a woman there are several risks:
- Don’t use a condom there is a risk of getting an STD. I don’t know the probability but I’m sure the CDC will have the info. Low uncertainty levels.
- Risk of pregancy due to faulty contraception; sabotaged contraception; bitch says she is using contraception but isn’t; sperm jacking; etc. High uncertainty levels.
- You will get accused of rape. High uncertainty levels.
- You will get a false paternity claim against you. High uncertainty levels.
In any relationship with a woman:
- The risk that she will be unfaithful is very high. Low uncertainty levels. (AWALT)
- You may get arrested for domestic violence if she doesn’t get her way. Medium uncertainty levels but dropping (see Matrix’s posts)
The point I am making is that in certain aspects of relationships with women there are known and well defined risks and men are aware of them but still ignore them, usually because they want to get their dick wet or because of blue-pill conditioning.
There are also many risks that are not so well defined, with higher levels of uncertainty but major impact, that men ignore or are not aware of until it is too late because the mainstream media and feminist propaganda suppress them by using the uncertainty to their advantage to make them women’s issues.
MGTOW and red-pill knowledge defines the risks where possible and strips the bulls~~~ to expose the uncertainty to allow men to make informed decisions.
Men should know the risks and not be afraid of uncertainty (i.e. what they don’t know) to regain control and sovereignty of themselves.
MGTOW mitigates risks and reduces uncertainty by not playing the game, or by playing by your own rules. No wonder feminists hate us.
"...reinvent your life because you must; it is your life and its history and the present belong only to you.” It is Your Life, Charles Bukowski.
Anonymous 1 year, 6 months ago.
