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Tagged: Investment Ideas
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MGTOWmonkey aka No More Fucks To Give 1 year, 8 months ago.
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In particular you want to look at low cost Index Funds, Vanguard under Jack Bogle pioneered these funds and there are several youtube videos you can find about Big Jack Bogle talk about these funds. They are not actively traded meaning there is no manager on the funds who is periodically trading trying to keep the performance high (of course this also comes with risk that can and will f~~~ you up). Index funds on the other hand simply follow a particular Index. For instance, the S&P 500 – when buying an Index Fund that follows the S&P 500, you are essentially buying into every company that lists itself on the S&P 500. You get a degree of diversification that way. Although I would add some degree of protection.
This is good advice, but I tell younger people to not dollar cost average or start when the stock market is overvalued as it is now. That is hard to do, but if you can wait until a market crash or decline and put the money in the index fund then you will get more bang for the buck. 1974, 1987, 2001, and 2008 were rare opportunities to get in on a major decline. The problem is that it takes courage to drop your money in at those times when everyone is calling you crazy and the pundits are certain the world is going to hell in a handbasket. You will get more shares then and over the long run you can leave the shares sit while the fund grows in future market dips.
There are websites like 321gold.com that monitor precious metals, which tend to perform inversely to the overall stock market. Charts or graphs of the major averages will show you if the market has declined.
Man I really appreciate all the input. I’m turning over every stone of informaton I’m receiving here as well as doing research from the links posted. It really hit me when I realized I have cash just sitting (saving) when I could be investing. Now I have to reprogram out of the mgtow frugal phase and into the mgtow investing phase.
Never lose sight of what brought you here.
Anonymous7I cannot add anything to the good advice you have been given so far, but isn’t it awesome to have f~~~ you money!
F~~~ You money is the best. It is why I suggested leaving it sit or put it into LOW risk investments.
Most people live paycheck to paycheck and losing their job for whatever reason is catastrophic.
A FU bucket of money is freedom.
With a 30K FU fund, you will not have emergencies, only s~~~ that costs you money.I can reccomend an FU fund, I had an fu fund it allowed me to walk out of two jobs in the space of 8 months for the sake of both my sanity and physical health.
http://www.leavemeansleave.eu
Pay off ALL of your debt now.
I cannot add anything to the good advice you have been given so far, but isn’t it awesome to have f~~~ you money!
That is how you do it. If s~~~ goes down you have a reserve. Keep saving you are doing well.
You need to pay of your debt now before the crash and it is coming.
http://www.leavemeansleave.eu
In particular you want to look at low cost Index Funds, Vanguard under Jack Bogle pioneered these funds and there are several youtube videos you can find about Big Jack Bogle talk about these funds. They are not actively traded meaning there is no manager on the funds who is periodically trading trying to keep the performance high (of course this also comes with risk that can and will f~~~ you up). Index funds on the other hand simply follow a particular Index. For instance, the S&P 500 – when buying an Index Fund that follows the S&P 500, you are essentially buying into every company that lists itself on the S&P 500. You get a degree of diversification that way. Although I would add some degree of protection.
This is good advice, but I tell younger people to not dollar cost average or start when the stock market is overvalued as it is now. That is hard to do, but if you can wait until a market crash or decline and put the money in the index fund then you will get more bang for the buck. 1974, 1987, 2001, and 2008 were rare opportunities to get in on a major decline. The problem is that it takes courage to drop your money in at those times when everyone is calling you crazy and the pundits are certain the world is going to hell in a handbasket. You will get more shares then and over the long run you can leave the shares sit while the fund grows in future market dips.
There are websites like 321gold.com that monitor precious metals, which tend to perform inversely to the overall stock market. Charts or graphs of the major averages will show you if the market has declined.
I strongly diagree, if you are investing long term. There is a golden rule that “time in the market beats timing the market.” Nobody knows what the market will do, or whether now is better or worse than the future, and more often than not you will lose out by sitting on the sidelines, so the best we do is put it in now, almost blindly …thinking of stock investing as a long-term investment. Put it in now, knowing that in a couple of decades it will have grown, having outlived whatever unusual highs or lows will come. Check that book I recommended for a deeper explanation.
If you are investing short term, you shouldnt be in stocks. Here is a chart I borrowed from the bogleheads retirement book, for investment timeline horizons:
0-2 years… CDs
2-5 years… Short term bonds
5-10 years… Intermediate term bonds
20+ years… Stock market index funds"Once you’ve taken care of the basics, there’s very little in this world for which your life is worth deferring." -David Hansson. "It’s not when women are mean or nasty that anything is out of the ordinary. It’s when they are NICE to you that you have to be on high alert..." -Jackinov.
Nobody knows what the market will do, or whether now is better or worse than the future, and more often than not you will lose out by sitting on the sidelines, so the best we do is put it in now, almost blindly …thinking of stock investing as a long-term investment. Put it in now, knowing that in a couple of decades it will have grown, having outlived whatever unusual highs or lows will come. Check that book I recommended for a deeper explanation.
Of course, no one can predict the market, but that is not the point. One can monitor the market and its relative value right now. I should have explained when I tell people not to dollar cost average in my personal contacts, I give those people two monitors that do exactly that — they have monitored the market all the way back to 1953. Those monitors clearly show when the market has been and is over or under valued. They do not require any prediction. They just tell you don’t buy overvalued merchandise NOW. In other words, they prevent one from putting money in the market by dollar cost averaging when the market is overvalued. The problem is that people want to get rich quick, These monitors are designed to get rich slowly but surely.
Funny thing about it is that women, who are seem to be less sure of their ability to invest, are the most likely to see the rationale behind those monitors. Every survey I have seen for the last few decades have shown that women are better at investing than men. I don’t think it is because of any greater ability by them, but they seem to follow the rules more than men.
Here are the two monitors if anyone wants to pursue them. Of course, it takes a lot of time to compile all the data and to input it. I give it away on a personal level, but do not do on the computer. It took hundreds of hours of time and research and I am not about to give it to the businesses that take it without recompense.
Genstein, Edgar S. Stock Market Profit Without Forecasting. South Orange, NJ: Investment Research Press, 1954.
Genstein FormulaGenstein maintains that “The impossibility of forecasting prices with much greater accuracy that tossing a coin is rather generally conceded.” Thus, instead of outlining a method of predicting stock price fluctuations, his “formula plan” is designed for “dealing with fluctuations . . . as they occur, so that profitable results will be secured in the long run regardless of the direction of future movements of stock prices.”
The Coppock Curve is a momentum indicator developed by Edwin “Sedge” Coppock, who was an economist by training. Coppock introduced the indicator in Barron’s in October 1965. The goal of this indicator is to identify long-term buying opportunities in the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials. The signal is very simple. Coppock used monthly data to identify buying opportunities when the indicator moved from negative territory to positive territory. Although Coppock did not use it for sell signals, many technical analysts consider a cross from positive to negative territory as a sell signal.
Thus, instead of outlining a method of predicting stock price fluctuations, his “formula plan” is designed for “dealing with fluctuations . . . as they occur, so that profitable results will be secured in the long run regardless of the direction of future movements of stock prices.”
Can you go into more detail about this quote if you don’t mind.
Never lose sight of what brought you here.
I can’t or don’t know how at present to transfer the material I have from my home computer to this netbook on the Genstein formula. It is a lot of work to type all that info from scratch. The netbook destroys the files or won’t let me post them or even copy the material in them. I have the graph of the Genstein values from 1953 to present, but that too I can’t figure how to post. I will keep working on it. Genstein is a very long term monitor and would keep one out of stocks for years if they did not get in at the undervalued areas.
A more useful short term and highly rated strategy is by the Investment Quality Trends (IQ Trends) newsletter. It uses blue chip stock that pay a dividend along with high and low prices. The low prices tend to occur when the dividend is high and high prices as the dividend yield declines. It is a zone type of method. If you don’t want to pay for a newsletter, a triple zone method based on cyclical stocks and high and low prices with and without dividends is explained in an older book by Burton Pugh titled A Better Way to Make Money. The stock examples in Pugh and Genstein are from decades ago, but the method is the main point. Doing all the research and graphing takes time and work, so sometimes the newsletter is cheaper. I have no connection to IQ Trends in any way. Genstein is especially difficult because a minimum of tens years of data has to be found and entered and then must be updated.
n a nutshell don’t go risky with FU money or it won’t be FU money any more. In other words, pause the FU and branch out.
Question..when you say pause the FU money do you mean invest in low risk investments or just keep it frozen in a savings account?
Never lose sight of what brought you here.
There is a golden rule that “time in the market beats timing the market.” Nobody knows what the market will do, or whether now is better or worse than the future, and more often than not you will lose out by sitting on the sidelines, so the best we do is put it in now, almost blindly …thinking of stock investing as a long-term investment. Put it in now, knowing that in a couple of decades it will have grown, having outlived whatever unusual highs or lows will come.
I agree. I would also suggest a board based market index fund investment strategy, rather than picking individual stocks for most of your investing dollars.
Consider any fees. Fees can seem small, but they really eat up returns when you consider the effects of compounding.
Also, portfolio managers rarely beat the average return on index funds (S&P 500 for example, or the Russell 1000), and charge a lot. Lots of decent management-fees free index funds out there.
How can a woman be expected to be happy with a man who insists on treating her as if she were a perfectly normal human being.
FINALLY figured out my error.
The Genstein Formula
The original formula was presented in a Master’s Degree thesis at Seton Hall University.
The problem with the Genstein formula is that it indicates that the stock market is overvalued for extremely long periods of time and it can keep a person out of the stock market if one did not originally buy when it was undervalued. However, if a person can get into the stock market when it is undervalued, especially as it was from 1974-1982 or from 2009-2012, they can stay in it for long periods of times and make a lot of money. It also shows that dollar cost averaging is not a good strategy if the market is overvalued for long periods of time. However, dollar cost averaging in periods when the market appears to be undervalued may be a good strategy.
The formula is not perfect. People often comment that the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average keep changing so it cannot work. That change is true, but the formula just uses the new stocks and not the old. The formula probably works as an estimate of how much one might be paying for one dollar of DJIA dividends at any period of time.
Nevertheless, if you are interested, here are the statistics needed to construct the Genstein formula. (Microsoft Excel or similar programs can do the mathematics for you)
(A) The ten year average of the sum of the 80 quarterly closing high and low prices of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and
(B) The ten year average of the 40 quarterly DJIA dividend payments, and
(C) The one year average of the most of the last four quarterly DJIA dividend payments.
A. Calculate the ten year average of the 80 quarterly DJIA high and low closing prices. That means adding all of the highs and lows for each quarter for the last ten year period. Divide that sum by 80 (for 80 high and low values in the quarters for ten years). Note that as you add each quarter as you go forward, the DJIA closing high and low from the quarter from 10 years ago and the two dividend values mentioned below have to be removed. Excel can do this for you. The DJIA closing highs and lows for each month can be found in the Barrons newspaper Market section statistics, or online at:
DOW monthly high low
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/historyDOW quarterly dividend
http://www.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-qdjindav.htmlAnother way to get those numbers is to keep a daily record of the DJIA closes for the each month and the current quarter and then choose the high and low.
B. Calculate the ten year average of annual dividends for the DJIA. Add all the quarterly dividend payments for the past 10 years and divide that number by 40 to get the average.
C. Add up the DJIA dividend payments for the four most recent quarters. Divide that number by four to get the average.
Divide C by B. That will give a comparison ratio of the last four quarterly DJIA dividends relative to the long term ten year average of DJIA dividends.
Multiply C/B x A. That will be the median value of the DJIA. The DJIA closing highs and lows for the most recent quarter are divided by this median value. That will give two numbers which are the range of values on a graph.
That number range gives an estimated value of how much one is paying for one dollar of DJIA dividends. I have used dollar values because this really is a dividend comparison between the last four quarter DJIA dividend average and the ten year DJIA dividend average. This formula is not perfect, but it is better than guessing. The graph from1953 to present shows that it hits the market areas of over and under values for DJIA stocks.
NOTE: If you want to keep track of the market on a daily basis with the current highest and lowest DJIA closing average, the quarterly dividend can be duplicated for the current quarter until a new quarterly DJIA dividend is received after the end of the current quarter. That means monitoring the market every day for the highest and lowest DJIA closing average in the current quarter. That requires constant changing of the values of A in the current quarter.
Genstein originally set his high exit points at 1.20 [$1.20] and his low entry points at -1.20, or [$ 0.80]. Apparently Genstein did not graph the range of values to see that theyoften has gone far above or below those points.
In addition, it is extremely important to understand that when the stock or bond markets are deeply undervalued as they were in 1974 or 2008, few people have the courage to buy. Fear and ridicule from other people add to the problem. Many years ago I read a book titled 45 Years in Wall Street by Jarvinen. He told of how in the depth of the Great Depression in the 1930s, he and a close friend were in California. One day they noticed a Communist Party meeting held nearby. On a lark they decided to attend to see what the Communists were up to. They discovered that the Communists were absolutely euphoric and were convinced that capitalism was finally dead and Communism would now triumph in the United States. Fortunately Jarvinen and his friend were solidly grounded in reality and decided that, what the hell, if the country was going down, they might as well blow their money and go down with the ship. So they went to a broker and bought at rock-bottom prices as many shares as they could of what would later to become blue chip stocks. They both made a fortune from their purchases.
In another book, I read about a young man in the early 1940s with a modest salary. He went to work one day and announced that he had purchased some General Motors stock. He was roundly and soundly ridiculed and told what a dope he was for purchasing stock in a “mature industry.” Guess who ultimately were the dopes?
In early 1982 I was working in a city at a major hospital and the city also had a major university. The Dow Jones Industrial Average around that time was around or BELOW 800. Because I had been using the Genstein formula, I could tell the stock market had long been undervalued since 1974 and that the Federal Reserve would ultimately be forced to reverse its policy. I was frantically telling the doctors and medical staff to buy, buy, buy! One doctor jokingly suggested to me that I be sent to the Psychiatric Ward for evaluation. From his comments, he indicated that I did not understand that we were on the brink of another scary Great Depression like the 1930s. Dow 24,000 is pretty scary and depressing, huh?
I could go on and on about how people are manipulated by their emotions, but I hope by now you get the idea.
Buy value. Buy low. Buy weakness. So, figure out WHAT value, low, and weakness are and find a method to know WHEN value, low, and weakness are present.
Sell high. Sell strength. So, figure WHAT and WHEN high and strength are and find a method to know WHEN high and strength are present.Bogle understood that the average investor did not have the time or ability to look more deeply in the stock and bond markets and suggested they use the low cost index funds instead of trying to pick individual stocks.
If you are interested in doing some research into market mechanics and such, here are some articles, websites, and books that might be of help.
Dollar-cost averaging when the market is overvalued can lose a lot of money. I have not been able to figure out how to post the MS Paint file I have on the Genstein Formula from 1953 to present, when you would see very plainly that it can be a problem. Contrary to what you might think or been told, there are patterns in markets that are not exact, but they do exist.
Adam Hamilton article
Long Valuation Waves
http://zealllc.com/2007/longwave3.htm
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton123016.htmlWelles Wilder and James Sloman
BThe Delta Phenomenon: or hidden order in all markets
Ron Rosen is the current manager of the website
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/rosen/rosen042618.pdf
Despite commissions, which I have never been concerned with, well selected individual stocks can be very profitable. That is what IQ Trends tries to monitor.
BOOK
Thomas W. Phelps100 to 1 in the Stock Market
https://www.amazon.com/100-Stock-Market-Distinguished-Opportunities/dp/1626540292
Investigate and read these and you will know more than most people know about the markets.
The ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to gold is another thing to watch. John Pierpont Morgan, who once bailed out a bankrupt United States, said something to the effect: “Gold is money, all the rest is credit.” Here is the link at InvestmentTools.com
http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/metals/welcome_to_the_page_about_gold.htm#dow_gold
In 1980, the ratio was 1:1. In other words, one ounce of gold would buy one share of the DJIA. The stock market was at a low and at bargain levels if one had the courage to buy. Today it takes over 15 ounces of gold, but note the ratio is trending in the favor of gold. That does not mean that it will continue. One cannot predict, but they can look at WHAT IS GOING ON TODAY.
I don’t know if this will work, but I will try to put the graph of the Genstein Formula from 1953 to present.
Nope, can’t seem to get it to work.
I appreciate all the input, I’m taking all this in. How do you feel about real estate (rental property) rather then the stock market?
Never lose sight of what brought you here.
How do you feel about real estate (rental property) rather then the stock market?
There are three things to remember in real estate: location, location, and location. That’s just a funny way to say “It Depends”. You’ll need to do a lot of homework and research stuff right down to the neighborhood in question.
There a brothers here who have done well with rental properties and there are brothers here who have been put through hell by the same.
Do not date. Do not impregnate. Do not co-habitate. Above all, do not marry. Reclaim and never again surrender your personal sovereignty.
30K is a start but you would need far more than that….I suggest that you sink the money in a Vanguard Index Fund like VFIAX which follows the S&P500 and has low Administration Fees and keep saving. When you start getting past 500K I would seriously look into buying Dividend Stocks from large stable companies…the Dividends would supply a cash flow, and perhaps save and get a rental property like a Duplex or Triplex…rent it out to the Feminist T~~~s and make money off of them.
The Index Fund will provide compounded growth over the years which will help you leverage your way up
The questions I have is what “safe” investments would you recommend that pay a decent dividend? Or what suggestions would you recommend because i’m looking to establish some passive income so I can really go my own way. Your input will be greatly appreciated.
Here is something to give you a place to start looking for returns plus dividends:
https://www.motifinvesting.com/motifs/private-equity
There are plenty of other ways to invest and other things to invest in. Consider reading the many books by Gardner brothers at The Motley Fool. Their web site is also ridiculously informative with a good community.
Do not wait to strike till the iron is hot; but make it hot by striking! -- William Butler Yeats
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