An Accountants look at NAWALT

[TaxGuyParticipant]

I know we are talking about NAWALT’s on another thread, but I want to start this thread to give you my honest look at NAWALT.

First off, I don’t think anybody thinks that ALL women are like anything. There are too many women for them ALL to be like anything. So instead of AWALT, I would have said most women, or almost all women are like that. But whatever.

But as an accountant, you do cost / benefit analysis and most likely outcomes. For example, if you are determining whether to book a liability in your books (in the US) you first determine the likelihood of the liability. The more likely it is, more likely you will be required to book it.

One other thing to be said at this point is that there are plenty of asshole guys out there. So it’s not like we aren’t without fault. However, I don’t want another man’s junk in my face, so I’m not concerned with not dating bad guys. She has to separate the good guys from the bad just like I have to separate the good women from the bad. Equality ladies.

So, to the numbers.

OK, we know that 50% of marriages end in divorce and that over 70% of the time it’s the woman that asks for it. And that doesn’t count the one’s like mine where we filed as co-petitioners even though she was the one that wanted the divorce when we started. So 70% is a low number.

So, right off the bat, dating AT IT’S BEST is a coin flip. And it only gets worse from there.

How many girlfriends did you have before you met THE ONE (the coin flip)? I probably had about 10 or so. So it took me 10 tries (10%) to get to the coin flip (50%). That was a 5% chance that any one girl would be THE ONE and that we would get married and I would get to keep my s~~~ and not give half of it to someone that hates my guts. And I’m not even counting the unhappy marriages. Factor those in, and you have about a 2-3% of finding happiness. F~~~ING 2%!!

So, here I sit. 51 years old, divorced. And the happiest I have been in 20 years because I have peace in my life for the first time in forever. I can go sign up for Match.com and play the 2% game again, or I can do whatever I want to do that makes me happy. I’m never wrong at home!! If I want to make dinner, I make dinner. If I want to get take out, I get that. If I want to go to the gym, the movies, stay home and read or watch tv, it’s NEVER f~~~ing wrong!!

So, tell me again how not ALL women are like that…………….you see, it doesn’t matter. Most, all, half, who cares? ENOUGH women are like that to make it not worth my effort.

EWALT. ENOUGH women are like that. How many? Who f~~~ing cares. Too many. Enough that if I brought one into my life, I would have to book the liability. Because the most likely outcome is that she will be a liability.

Order the good wine

[Biggvs_DickvsParticipant 3725]

So when you were married, did she depreciate with Straight line or double declining?

"Data, I would be delighted to offer any advice I can on understanding women. When I have some, I'll let you know." --Captain Picard,

[NeroParticipant 1466]

When I met my wife, she was the most beautiful girl and wonderful relationship experience I ever had in my life. There were some red flags early on that I ignored, but overall, it was great. Four years in and two kids later I’m wondering WTF did I do. AWALT. I have spent the last 15 years in all sorts of states of confusion and FOG (fear, obligation, and guilt) over leaving her. That and the kids have kept me anchored. That was my experience with the best chick I could find and settle down with. Can you imagine it could only get worse from there?

[Anonymous 6]

Have only had two girlfriends which is more than enough to know that relations~~~s are a waste of time and epically fail at a cost / benefit analysis.

I was the overly nice guy back then, bowing down and trying to please others. You can only take so much of their s~~~ until you say no more and tell them to f~~~ off, It’s great to be the asshole they avoid now 🙂

[RoyDalParticipant]

NAWALT (not all women are like that)?
Lotto ticket (not all tickets are wasted money)!

Society asks MGTOWs: Why are you not making more tax-slaves?

[narwhalParticipant]

I don’t disagree with your conclusion, but your statistics are way off.

First off, you’re odds of finding a woman to marry is not 10%, for two reasons. One, your experiment is no where near significant in determining the actual odds. If it took me 4 coin flips to turn up Heads, could I then conclude the odds of getting Heads is 25%? Of course not, you needs a much bigger sample size then that. Two, you aren’t factoring in your ability to control the odds, such as the area you live in, your finances, your own judgment, etc. A rich man with very little selection criteria would have no trouble finding a wife in a poor neighborhood, while a poor selective man wouldn’t get a sniff in a rich neighborhood.

Second off, 50% is the overall marriage success rate, but you can’t apply that to yourself because not all marriages are done under the same conditions. Again, you have good judgment to avoid marriage where other men would run right off the cliff. You can control the odds greatly by controlling when and who you marry.

Honestly, you don’t have to really know the odds, as they’ll never be good enough. Say you estimate that you have an 80% chance of success rate with a particular woman. Given the high cost of failure, and the MGTOW alternative, is it worth the risk?

Ok. Then do it.

[TaxGuyParticipant]

narwhal wrote:

I don’t disagree with your conclusion, but your statistics are way off.

Totally agree. I only took myself as an example. The point is that whether it’s 2%, 4%, 8%, it’s still a very small number.

That’s why I say EWOLT. And that is my new response to someone that says “Not all women are like that.”

“Yup, agreed. But ENOUGH women are like that.”

Order the good wine

[Solo MAN’S WisdomParticipant]

EWALT. Love it. Keep ’em coming, Tax Guy.

When women lead, destruction is the destination. -- Me.

[TaxGuyParticipant]

Biggvs_Dickvs wrote:

So when you were married, did she depreciate with Straight line or double declining?

Right now in the tax world they have what’s called bonus depreciation. You start off with an immediate 50% write off. Then the remaining 50% is double declining balance. On a 5 year asset you write off 60% in year one and another 20% in year two. So 80% write off in the first two years.

That sounds pretty accurate.

Order the good wine

[sidecarParticipant 35837]

TaxGuy wrote:

Factor those in, and you have about a 2-3% of finding happiness. F~~~ING 2%!!

If that. I suspect it’s a lot lower, because the vast majority of NAWALTs are really AWALTs who haven’t dropped the pretense yet.

More importantly, even if you do somehow manage to find that one in a million true and actual NAWALT unicorn, was she worth all the effort to find her?

Of course not.

It’s so much easier to just pump and dump AWALTS. They might not like the fact that they’ve made themselves into nothing more than pump and dumps, but that is not our fault.

And it’s not our problem, either.

[Jan SobieskiParticipant 28791]

My take is there are two things at play here.

1. Females evolutionary programming. Brifualts law, hypergamy, etc. Awalt. It is in their DNA. they can overcome it, but it is damn hard. Nature.

2. Feminism. Angers up the blood, political programming, psychology. Nurture.

Can a woman overcome these. Yes. But it is safer to assume AWALT.

The risks are just too great.

Love is just alimony waiting to happen. Visit mgtow.com.

[CatsPawParticipant 423]

The number is significantly smaller than 2%.

First, you have to take into account not only the girlfriends you HAD, but all the girls you did NOT want to date for a serious reason. This is because both males and females can lie and pretend they are something they are not. This could also end in a marriage.

Second, that 50% rate of divorce does not take into account:
a) unhappy marriage (she might be the ONE, to f~~~ your life till you die).
b) people who are only married on paper, but live separate lives.

Third, (and this is A BIG ONE), you are only calculating the odds of divorce “at any given time”.
To do this properly, you would have to calculate the odds of divorce for only dead people, as alive people can STILL divorce.

Fourth, in that 50% divorce, are murders taken into account? It is after all one way the marriage can “end”.

Im probably still missing something but, Id say, the ods are somewhat in the 0.02% chance.

EDIT: Oh yeah, and then there are the ones that cheat on ya :D.

[OgreParticipant 5863]

Nice OP TaxGuy, and some excellent additions by the other menbers.

With the truer number now at a realistic .02% the only thing that I can add is this…

NEVER AGAIN.

I failed to realize in my youth that I was the prize. I was going to work. I was going to earn. Little did I realize that due to feminism, that no longer meant I had to share. Road soon, Desert after.

[BeerParticipant 11832]

sidecar wrote:

More importantly, even if you do somehow manage to find that one in a million true and actual NAWALT unicorn, was she worth all the effort to find her?

Oh yeah…this is what it boils down for for me as well. The way I look at it…on a 1-10 scale of happiness…maybe I’m an 8 right now. Why not just coast along like that? Maybe I could find someone who would make my life better and I’d be a 9…but its probably going to take a few more failures and time spent in the 2-3 range…and there is always the possibility that even if I think I found the one that I end up divorce raped…in which case I think my happiness would be a 1 for the rest of my life as I looked back and thought f~~~ me, I could have been retired and living a life of leisure before I turned 40 and instead I’m now broke until the child support ends and have to work into my 60s and have less than a decade to recover pre-retirement/post-divorce rape.

sidecar wrote:

It’s so much easier to just pump and dump AWALTS. They might not like the fact that they’ve made themselves into nothing more than pump and dumps, but that is not our fault.

And it’s not our problem, either.

Kinda funny how that whole sexually liberated women thing backfired on them lol.

[EyeswideopenParticipant 2930]

Fantastic post TaxGuy!!!!!

I love mathematical modeling. What you propose is a crude model with only one data point, mainly your own experiences. If I may borrow your model for a moment and do a slight alteration and elaboration.

Let’s flip the script and do it from the women’s/feminist’s perspective.
The base inputs are as follows.

BD = Base chance of divorce = 50% (coin toss) (It will either succeed or fail). As all marriages are averaged and approach infinity cases, with no fault divorce, all things being equal this intuitively makes sense.
CCM = C~~~ Count Modifier = Unique Guys she slept with but did not marry. The old dick stacking test. 1/#men
PCS = Percentage chance of success of marriage in general.

Ok, let’s run a few cases.

Case – Virgin.
PCS= CCM * BD = 1/1 * 0.5 = 0.5 = 50%
Chance of Success is 50% overall.

Case#2 – Light Carousel Rider. (2-5 guys)
PCS(2)= 1/2 *0.5 = 0.25= 25%
PCS(5)= 1/5*0.5= 0.1=10%
Chance of Success is between 25%-10% Overall.

Case #3 – Moderate Rider (6-10 guys)
PCS(6) = 1/6*0.5= 8%
PCS(10) = 1/10*0.5 = 5%
Chance of success is between 8%-5%.

Case #4 – Heavy Rider (11-20 guys)
PCS(11) = 1/11*0.5=4%
PCS(20) = 1/20 *0.5=2.5%
Chance of success is between 4%-2.5%

This is not even factoring in who ends the marriage (70% women) and if the marriage is happy; as stated by the OP.

But as the c~~~ count rises, as we can see, these modification factors become more and more meaningless to the end percentage chance of success. So the more promiscuous the lady is, the chances of success drop dramatically – I propose a lack of ability to pair bond. Also, each additional guy she sleeps with has less and less meaning as we approach infinity. This is the mathematical equivalent of the 1000 c~~~ stare.

The odds get even worse when remarriage is factored in. Base chance of divorce is say 65% for a second marriage, so a 35% of success. Rerunning the numbers we get even lower scores. In the past, societal values pushed that base chance of success to much much higher as divorce was shunned. Also, level of promiscuity was lower.

I am fairly certain my ex fell into case#4. She downplayed it, but this is a good guess. When I had between a 96%-97.5% chance of failure each year – no wonder I was 2 and done. It just never occurred to me to try and model the situation – I wish I had thought of it pre-marriage. You see, I believe the tripe feminism claimed that she was a strong, independent women exercising her options. No wonder society is f~~~ed.

- Marriage is described as an institution. You would have to be crazy to be commited to it. -"If you want to live a happy life, tie it to a goal. Not people or things" Albert Einstein

[Anonymous 3]

Jan Sobieski wrote:

My take is there are two things at play here.

1. Females evolutionary programming. Brifualts law, hypergamy, etc. Awalt. It is in their DNA. they can overcome it, but it is damn hard. Nature.

2. Feminism. Angers up the blood, political programming, psychology. Nurture.

Can a woman overcome these. Yes. But it is safer to assume AWALT.

The risks are just too great.

Except I would say feminism is mostly Nature.

[BeerParticipant 11832]

Eyeswideopen wrote:

You see, I believe the tripe feminism claimed that she was a strong, independent women exercising her options. No wonder society is f~~~ed.

A slut telling you not to judge her on her past is like a heroin addict telling you to try some, its good for you.

[Author]

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