2016 stock crash?

Topic by Blue Skies

Blue Skies

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This topic contains 13 replies, has 13 voices, and was last updated by  Anonymous 4 years, 1 month ago.

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  • #149256
    +1
    Blue Skies
    Blue Skies
    Participant
    15665

    I am predicting that 2016 will be the year the US stock market will crash. the previous two crashes was 2001 and 2008. Interests rates are far too low compared to historical averages and so there is too much debt. Stocks in the NYSE are overvalued. there is also a student loan bubble although this bubble will take many years before it pops. I would say there’s 75% chance the S&P 500 will experience a major correction in 2016. What do you guys think?
    http://www.google.ca/finance?q=INDEXSP%3A.INX&ei=aNdbVvi8MpHAeKyngcgP

    MGTOW is not a movement, it is a way of life.

    #149288
    +1
    MalfunctionNeedInput
    MalfunctionNeedInput
    Participant
    257

    I am predicting that 2016 will be the year the US stock market will crash. the previous two crashes was 2001 and 2008. Interests rates are far too low compared to historical averages and so there is too much debt. Stocks in the NYSE are overvalued. there is also a student loan bubble although this bubble will take many years before it pops. I would say there’s 75% chance the S&P 500 will experience a major correction in 2016. What do you guys think?
    http://www.google.ca/finance?q=INDEXSP%3A.INX&ei=aNdbVvi8MpHAeKyngcgP

    People have been speculating since early 2014 and so far nothing. Not to say nothing will happen but it seems sorta played out worrying about it and speculating. Also when you say correction, do you mean a 10%/15% like we had this year or something like a 30% or more correction? Is the fed going to keep propping up the economy? Will interest rates ever go up? Who knows..?

    There’s no shortage of talk.

    The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing. One cannot help but be in awe when he contemplates the mysteries of eternity, of life, of the marvelous structure of reality. It is enough if one tries merely to comprehend a little of this mystery every day. Never lose a holy curiosity. --Einstein

    #149304
    Chir
    chir
    Participant

    Its a matter of extend and pretend. Normal folks don’t expend the effort to look at how over leveraged the entire world economy is. Notice how there are no more debt crisis’s? The Fed stopped recording the official debt. So no more debt crisis’s. Check out shadowstats for real debt, unemployment and employment. The whole banking world is doing extend and pretend. This is why the stock markets are so disconnected from corporate reality. The longer we keep putting off a significant correction the worse a crash will be. All we can do as spectators is prepare.

    It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed, the hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning; it is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion.

    #149340
    +2

    Anonymous
    5

    I now ignore the macro and think micro…..me.

    Hallelujah Brother!

    This is why I don’t watch the news anymore. I haven’t for years because the sky’s always falling.
    I invested in some physical gold and low end residential real estate and hoarded some cash.
    After that, it’s business as usual I couldn’t care less if there was a crash or no crash.

    Our biggest worry is the declining effectiveness of antibiotics.

    #149344
    +1
    RoyDal
    RoyDal
    Participant

    This is why I don’t watch the news anymore. I haven’t for years because the sky’s always falling.

    How true! If you played a recording from the news of a year ago, you would be hard pressed to tell that broadcast from today’s. The sky is always falling because that is what captures our attention and makes us watch the commercials.

    The whole point of TV news is making us watch commercials. TV news is not an information source in the sense that it is incomplete and unreliable.

    Society asks MGTOWs: Why are you not making more tax-slaves?

    #149422
    +1
    Quietlyquietly
    Quietlyquietly
    Participant
    728

    zerohedge.com

    I am definitely in the camp that thinks there’s an almighty correction going to happen, but exactly when is really almost impossible to figure.

    This table has some interesting info:

    w d gann financial cycle

    #149609
    +1

    Anonymous
    0

    Nice table Quietlyquietly,

    Here’s my take.
    In the early 1900’s a mens suit cost about 27 to 32 USD. About the price of an ounce of gold. In 2015 a mens suit cost about 1400 to 1600 USD. About the price of an ounce of gold. I really don’t care what the USD price of anything is because you can always get it cheaper if you shop around. However, gold retains its value over time. As for a stock market crash, when and how bad, I will sit on my physical gold.

    #149790
    +1
    MalfunctionNeedInput
    MalfunctionNeedInput
    Participant
    257

    All we can do as spectators is prepare.

    By saving up a s~~~load of money to invest when stocks are at their lowest…Well that what I wish I would’ve done in 2009 but cared little for any investing then…

    On the other hand, Gold and silver are really cheap right now. Might by myself some more silver…

    The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing. One cannot help but be in awe when he contemplates the mysteries of eternity, of life, of the marvelous structure of reality. It is enough if one tries merely to comprehend a little of this mystery every day. Never lose a holy curiosity. --Einstein

    #149956
    +1
    NotMyProblem
    NotMyProblem
    Participant
    965

    I have no doubt we’ll see another big correction before this decade is up. Get some Bitcoin and some precious metals.

    Remember, an entire Bitcoin ($360) is 4,000 times more scarce than an ounce of gold ($1100). Do the math fellas, this could be very big.

    Not my property... Not my problem

    #150801
    +1
    CatsPaw
    CatsPaw
    Participant
    423

    Id stay away from bitcoin.
    Most of the information I have been able to dig up on it shows its a very smart ponzi scheme.
    Not the network and the technology itself, but how it is being used.

    Id have some gold/silver (in 15% range).
    And of course you need some cash, no point in having gold or silver if you have to sell it as soon as a crash starts because you have no money to eat.

    #151170
    Hollowtips
    hollowtips
    Participant
    681

    If their is another crash I’m officially liquidating all my assets and travelling the world.
    I don’t think their will be a massive crash at least in the U.S and Canada again but their will be substantial backlashes in the coming years.

    #151257
    +1
    Won'tGetFooledAgain
    Won'tGetFooledAgain
    Participant
    3293

    I think the governments will manipulate everything so it doesn’t happen. Look at the Chinese stock market crash, a few days of zombie apocalypse type news and then things go on as usual.

    The only things people care about these days are low interest rates and house prices. I cannot see rates going up anytime soon as people have got too used to cheap money.

    Even Gold has continued it’s 6 year fall as the dollar is too strong so there is no point buying gold.

    The rich will continue to get richer and the rich/poor divide will get even bigger. Youngsters today will never be able to afford property and will be work slaves to pay rent which is going to retired boomers.

    For women, everything eventually boils down to Alpha Fucks, Beta Bucks.

    #151910
    +1
    Beer
    Beer
    Participant
    11832

    Its a matter of extend and pretend. Normal folks don’t expend the effort to look at how over leveraged the entire world economy is. Notice how there are no more debt crisis’s? The Fed stopped recording the official debt. So no more debt crisis’s. Check out shadowstats for real debt, unemployment and employment. The whole banking world is doing extend and pretend. This is why the stock markets are so disconnected from corporate reality. The longer we keep putting off a significant correction the worse a crash will be. All we can do as spectators is prepare.

    This is how I see it as well. Sooner or later our debt becomes unsustainable and the shell game can’t go on. I think we are currently spending about 1.30 for every 1.00 worth of tax revenue. Eventually we are going to have to start moving our debt in the other direction…what are we going to do raise taxes 40% or cut spending 40%? Either one is going to have a dramatic impact on the economy, and that is a best case scenario if they actually try to fix the problem before we simply can’t afford to service our debt anymore, which is the more likely scenario.

    The rich will continue to get richer and the rich/poor divide will get even bigger. Youngsters today will never be able to afford property and will be work slaves to pay rent which is going to retired boomers.

    I’m a bit of a skeptic on a lot of this data they put out. When they throw things out there like the top 1% have more wealth than the bottom 60%…you have to think who are the bottom 60%? A portion of them are just scum bags…druggies, single moms, lazy people, people who love making terrible choices and not learning, etc. There are professional athletes and lottery winners who make millions in a short amount of time who end up with a negative net worth, because no matter how hard you try, you just can’t fix stupid. On the flip side of that you have people with 15 dollar an hour jobs who make good choices, live frugally, and retire millionaires. What are you really comparing when you are looking at the wealth distribution…to me it just seems its nothing but proof the amount of stupid people in society is multiplying.

    Also…who are a lot of people with a high net worth? Simple answer…people who lived within their means and saved for retirement. I’m too lazy to look up the statistics, but if I recall correctly its something in the ballpark of 85% of millionaires are self made, and the average age of a millionaire is around 60. Do you think its unreasonable a 60 something year old who spent 40+ years of his life working ends up with a net worth higher than 50 20 year olds who combined have worked less hours than that one 60 something year old?

    Plus you also have to look at the concept of how valuable is what you do? I don’t think its unreasonable some doctor who went to school for 10 years and spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on education ends up making 300k a year, while someone stocking a shelf at walmart makes 20k. I don’t think its unreasonable someone can grow a business from the ground up and end up worth millions while someone else ends up with very little because they never advanced in life beyond flipping burgers.

    It sounds all nice to say things should be more evenly split, but when you start looking at the demographics a bit, and contemplating some numbers, how are you going to accomplish this? Are we going to have a 60k a year minimum wage and a 200k a year maximum wage? Hell even if we did that you’d still end up with people who end up in debt and other who end up multi millionaires. Are we going to start taxing seniors at a higher rate because its not fair they have more wealth after a life time of work? Are we going to have government provided smart phones, cable tv, twice yearly vacations, and new cars every 4 years so people who like spending money on those things don’t have to anymore, and they can save more?

    With that being said, the only thing that p~~~es me off in the realm of the whole wealth distribution thing, is how the middle class end up paying 35-40% tax rates while the rich pay 15-20% because the bulk of their income is capital gains, not payroll. I’m not of the mind set we should be soaking the rich for obscene amounts of taxes, but I wouldn’t mind seeing us all paying 20-25%, as well as requirements for government assistance being a bit more strict because I think we have a s~~~ load of people out there just gaming the system because its easier than working.

    #153120
    +1

    Anonymous
    6

    When we see interest rates rise we will get a better picture of whats to come, with the jobs data higher everyone seems the rates will rise. I spend more time normally on zerohedge.

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